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EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast - 150724
EUR/USD has been working its way through what appears to be the final stage of its corrective pattern — the fifth wave (/5) of [Y] within the broader (C) structure. If you’ve been following the pair closely, you might recall that the fourth wave (/4) ended in a well-defined triangle around the 1.1220 mark. That level now acts as a strong resistance zone and serves as a key reference point for traders trying to gauge whether the correction is truly over or not.
Chances of Partiy
Right now, the market seems to be moving through the red fifth wave, and this phase often brings the final leg of a correction before a major reversal can happen. The wave structure suggests that EUR/USD could still have some downside room to explore. The first area to watch is around 1.0450, which aligns with a typical five-wave completion. If bearish momentum stays intact, the move could even extend toward parity (1.00) or slightly below, possibly around 0.9750.
Near Term Resistance @ 1.1220
From a technical point of view, the structure remains bearish as long as the pair holds below 1.1220. That level has been tested and respected multiple times, showing that sellers are still in control. A clear break above it would force a rethink of the current outlook and could signal the start of a larger recovery phase. But until that happens, the chart continues to favor the downside.
Keep Eye on 1.0450
In practical terms, traders may want to remain cautious about chasing short-term bounces unless there’s a confirmed change in structure. The market is still in a broader correction, and the fifth wave can often surprise with sharp swings before it finally runs out of steam. Keeping an eye on price action near 1.0450 will be important — if the pair stabilizes or forms a strong reversal pattern there, it could be an early hint that this long-running correction is nearing its end.
Main Resistance
For anyone following EUR/USD forecasts or looking for updated EUR/USD forex analysis, the message remains the same: resistance at 1.1220 is the key line in the sand. As long as that level caps the upside, the broader wave structure suggests the euro could stay under pressure for a while longer before a meaningful recovery takes shape.
Wisdom from Past
“Volatility is the language of opportunity — fluent traders listen calmly"
Crucial Risk Management Advice
Crucial Advice: Effective trading is based on disciplined risk management, not prediction certainty. Always use a firm stop-loss to protect your capital. Macroeconomic news, particularly from the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank, can override any technical pattern instantly.
About the Author
Ghulam Muhiuddin, Certified Technical Market Analyst
Experience: This analysis reflects the insights gained from 18 Years of consistent market analysis and forecasting, specializing in the application of the Elliott Wave Principle and advanced technical structures.
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