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Crude Oil's Critical Juncture: Elliott Wave Analysis Points to Sub-$50 Target
Current Market Snapshot and Context
The price action on the WTI/USD daily chart, dated November 19, 2025, presents a compelling picture. For over a year, crude oil has been correcting the strong rally that peaked near the $95-97 mark. This correction is currently unfolding within a clear downward channel, often referred to as a complex corrective structure in Elliott Wave terminology.
Based on the provided analysis, the entire move from the Wave B high (around $95-97) appears to be an expanding or widening diagonal pattern, or perhaps a larger A-B-C flat correction. The important takeaway is that the market is stuck in a broad, declining channel.
As of November 19, 2025, the price is sitting right around the $60.11 level. This is a crucial pivot point, as the market is testing the upper boundary of a short-term, steeply declining triangle formation, or a sharp short-term channel, that has developed since the Wave 4 high (around $78).
The Long-Term Corrective Structure (Wave C in Red)
The overall move since the end of 2023 is labeled as the primary Wave C (in red on the chart). Corrective waves are often choppy and frustrating, and this one is no exception, but the Elliott Wave count helps define the path of least resistance.
We can observe the following breakdown of this large correction:
- Wave 1 (Low around $67): The initial sharp drop from the peak.
- Wave 2 (High around $90): A counter-trend rally that failed to make a new high.
- Wave 3 (Low around $53): A strong downward impulse, breaking the initial channel line. This was the most damaging move for the bulls in late Spring 2025.
- Wave 4 (High around $78): A significant rally that respected the upper boundary of the larger declining channel. This rally absorbed a lot of the short-term selling pressure.
We are currently in Wave 5 of this larger Wave C.
The Immediate Outlook: Targeting the Wave 5 Low
The most critical information provided by this chart is the target for the current Wave 5. Wave 5 is typically the final thrust in the direction of the larger trend. Given the depth and momentum of the preceding waves, the analysis projects a final target area that takes crude oil substantially lower, potentially into the $46-$50 range before the entire correction is complete.
This target is derived from the convergence of several factors:
- Wave C Target: The initial sharp drop from the peak.
- Channel Boundary: The completion of the larger C-wave correction often aims to achieve a certain price ratio or equality with the A-wave.
- Wave 3 (Low around $53): The projected target area falls near the lower boundary of the long-term declining channel (the green lines), providing strong structural support where the price is expected to turn.
- Visual Confirmation: The steep, shaded area at the end of the chart highlights the final, projected impulse down to the completion point, labeled as the final Wave C (in red) around the $46 mark.
Key Technical Observations and Confirmation Points
1. The Descending Channel and Price Pressure
The most dominant feature is the descending parallel channel (the two long green lines). The price has consistently failed to break above the upper line and has repeatedly sought support near the lower line.
The break below the Wave 3 low (near $53) would strongly confirm that the final move down is underway. The price has already decisively broken below the support level established around $64, placing significant downward pressure on the commodity.
2. The Current Pivot Point ($60.11)
The current price of $60.11 is extremely important. It sits just below a cluster of old support levels that have recently turned into resistance.
- If the price manages to rally back above $64-$65: This would be a significant technical victory for the bulls, suggesting that the final Wave 5 low might be shallower or that the corrective structure is more complex than a simple A-B-C.
- If the price holds below $60 and accelerates downward: This is the high-probability scenario presented by the chart. A decisive break below the $58 area would likely trigger momentum selling, clearing the path quickly towards the $53 low and ultimately towards the $46-$50 target zone.
3. Time Frame Considerations
The analysis is based on the Daily (D) chart and projects the completion of this final move into the first quarter of 2026 (March/April 2026), as indicated by the shaded triangle on the chart. This suggests that the final phase of this significant correction is expected to take another four to five months to fully mature.
This analysis is based purely on technical patterns (Elliott Wave Theory) and should not be used as a sole basis for investment decisions. Crude oil is a commodity deeply affected by geopolitical events, OPEC+ decisions, global economic growth forecasts, and seasonal demand. Any sudden news development (e.g., major supply disruption, unexpected OPEC+ production cuts, or a sharp economic slowdown) can instantly override technical projections.
Participants should always consider these fundamental risks alongside the technical view. The volatility in the commodity space requires strict risk management practices. The potential downside projected on this chart is substantial, meaning traders should use appropriate position sizing and protective stop-loss orders.
Wisdom from Past
"Opportunities are where preparation meets action"
Crucial Risk Management Advice
Crucial Advice: Effective trading is based on disciplined risk management, not prediction certainty. Always use a firm stop-loss to protect your capital. Macroeconomic news, particularly from the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank, can override any technical pattern instantly.
About the Author
Ghulam Muhiuddin, Certified Technical Market Analyst
Experience: This analysis reflects the insights gained from 18 Years of consistent market analysis and forecasting, specializing in the application of the Elliott Wave Principle and advanced technical structures.
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