- Pair
- Gold
- Symbol
- XAUUSD
- Analysis Type
- Elliott Wave
- Date
- September, 30, 2025
- Author
- Muhiuddin
Elliott Wave Analysis Gold (XAU/USD) - Daily: Targeting 4000
Gold's (XAU/USD) daily chart reveals a compelling impulsive wave structure dictated by the Elliott Wave Principle, suggesting a powerful continuation of the long-term bull market. Our current analysis, as of September 30, 2025, places the price action firmly within a major Green Larger Wave (III), the third and typically most extensive wave in the primary 5-wave impulsive sequence. The current price near $3864 is on track to complete the final sub-wave of this larger degree move, setting the stage for a critical market juncture.
Deconstructing the Primary Wave Structur
The major uptrend commenced following the completion of the Green Larger Wave (II), a deep and protracted correction that concluded at a low of $1616.66 on November 3, 2022. This corrective phase was structurally identified as a double zigzag pattern, labeled internally as the Red Medium Wave W-X-Y-Z complex. Specifically, the final leg, Red Medium Wave Y, culminated at the $1616.66 low, marking the end of the full retracement and the commencement of the powerful Green Larger Wave (III).
The initial impulse for this massive third wave, Green Larger Wave (III), was established by Red Medium Wave 1, which topped out at $2080 on May 3, 2023. A subsequent, necessary consolidation, labeled Red Medium Wave 2, followed, tracing a three-wave corrective pattern (a)-(b)-(c) down to $1810 on October 6, 2023. This deep retracement paved the way for the most dynamic segment of the bull market.
The Powerful Extension of Wave 3
The Red Medium Wave 3 within the larger Green Larger Wave (III) was characterized by an extended, powerful rally, a common feature of third waves. This impulse phase saw Gold appreciate significantly, starting from the $1810 low and culminating at $3500 by April 22, 2025. This wave adhered strictly to the 5-wave sub-division (Blue Waves (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv)-(v)), confirming its impulsive nature. Noteworthy segments included the Blue Wave (ii) correction—identified as a Running Flat—and the Blue Wave (iv) correction—which formed a double zigzag pattern—before the final Blue Wave (v) push to the $3500 apex.
Following this robust rally, a period of sideways consolidation ensued as Red Medium Wave 4 unfolded. This corrective structure took the form of a classic triangle pattern, concluding its pattern at $3268 on July 30, 2025. The triangular formation is a common corrective structure preceding the final thrust in a 5-wave sequence, suggesting the underlying trend remains intact.
Current Market Position and Forward Projection
The market is now actively engaged in the final impulsive thrust of the current major degree move: Red Medium Wave 5 of the Green Larger Wave (III). This move commenced from the $3268 low and is currently unfolding, having already reached $3864.
According to the Elliott Wave Principle, the fifth wave aims to complete the larger impulse sequence. Our minimum price target for the culmination of Red Medium Wave 5 is projected to be around the $4000+ level. Upon the successful completion of this target, the massive Green Larger Wave (III) will be deemed complete.
Investors and traders must note that the completion of such a powerful third wave (III) will structurally necessitate the onset of a Green Larger Wave (IV) correction. While the impulsive waves (1, 3, 5) provide directional clarity, the corrective waves (2, 4) are notoriously challenging to predict with precision. Therefore, while a significant long-term correction is anticipated following the breach of $4000, its exact magnitude and form (e.g., zigzag, flat, or triangle) will require subsequent real-time wave-count analysis as it unfolds. The prevailing bias remains bullish in the short-to-medium term until the $4000 target for Red Medium Wave 5 is successfully achieved.
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