The Nifty 50 continues to progress through a highly dynamic Elliott Wave structure, offering traders and investors a fascinating long-term roadmap. As of 23rd September 2025, price action suggests we are in the later stages of a significant impulsive wave, with the index trading near 25,227 and showing signs of pushing higher toward the 29,000 level before a long-term correction begins.

This report dissects the price structure across Larger (Green), Medium (Red), and Smaller (Blue) wave degrees, aligning historical price milestones with the Elliott Wave Principle.

Elliott Wave Analysis – Nifty (Weekly) – 23rd September 2025


Larger Wave Count – Green (1–2–3–4–5)

At the largest degree, Nifty remains in a powerful Green Wave 3 advance that began after the conclusion of Green Wave 2 on 27th October 2010 at 2,252.75.

Green Wave 1 was completed on 7th January 2001 with a top at 6,357.10, concluding the first major impulse.

Green Wave 2 provided a deep retracement into the 2010 lows, paving the way for the long-term bull market we continue to experience.

Green Wave 3 is currently unfolding, with its internal structure still developing, and will likely remain the dominant bullish driver until the completion of Red Wave 3 and subsequent Red Wave 4 correction.

 Medium Wave Count – Red (1–2–3–4–5)

Within Green Wave 3, we have been tracing a well-defined Red Wave (1–2–3–4–5) structure.

Red Wave 1 was completed on 20th January 2020 at 12,389.05, ending a long-term bull run.

Red Wave 2 completed shortly after during the COVID-19 crash, bottoming on 23rd March 2020 at 7,511.00.

Red Wave 3 is now in progress and has been exceptionally powerful, pushing Nifty to new historic highs.

We are currently in Blue Wave v of Red Wave 3, with price expected to move toward 29,000, where Red Wave 3 will likely terminate.

Once Red Wave 3 finishes, we anticipate a complex corrective phase (Red Wave 4) before another strong impulse higher in Red Wave 5.

Smaller Wave Count – Blue (i–ii–iii–iv–v)

 The Blue Wave count provides more granular insight into the internal subdivisions of Red Wave 3 and the ongoing price action.

Blue Waves within Red Wave 1 (Completed)

Blue Wave i – 8th Nov 2010 @ 6,335.90

Blue Wave ii – 19th Dec 2012 @ 4,531.15

Blue Wave iii – 2nd Mar 2015 @ 9,119.20

Blue Wave iv – 29th Feb 2016 @ 6,825.80

Blue Wave v – 20th Jan 2020 @ 12,430.50

This five-wave advance completed Red Wave 1 within Green Wave 3.

 

Blue Waves within Red Wave 3 (Ongoing)

Blue Wave i – 18th Oct 2021 @ 18,604.45

Blue Wave ii – 13th Jun 2022 @ 15,183.40

Blue Wave iii – 23rd Sep 2024 @ 26,277.35

Blue Wave iv – 7th Apr 2025 @ 21,743.65

Blue Wave v – currently forming, with Nifty trading at 25,227 as of today.

Given the strong momentum and price structure, Blue Wave v is expected to extend toward the 29,000 zone, which should also mark the completion of Red Wave 3.

Outlook and Strategic Considerations

 Once the 29,000 target is reached, we expect the market to enter Red Wave 4, a corrective phase that could be time-consuming and complex in structure. Historically, fourth waves tend to be sideways, choppy, and frustrating for both bulls and bears, potentially retracing anywhere between 23.6% and 38.2% of Red Wave 3.

 However, this correction will be long-term healthy and will set up the foundation for Red Wave 5, which could drive prices significantly higher, with long-term projections extending toward 33,000+.

Key Takeaways

Trend: Strongly bullish in the short-to-medium term, with targets at 29,000 before a corrective phase.

Risk: Expect heightened volatility and potential sideways action during Red Wave 4 once the current advance exhausts.

Long-term View: Following the correction, Nifty remains structurally positioned for a powerful Red Wave 5 rally into uncharted territory.

For investors, buy-on-dips strategies remain favorable until 29,000 is reached, after which it is prudent to prepare for a deeper consolidation phase. Traders should stay alert for signs of distribution and be ready to tactically reduce leverage as the wave count matures.