📍 RSI & SMA Confirm Bullish Outlook on EURUSD
Fundamental Outlook for EURUSD
The EURUSD pair is facing a tug-of-war between shifting risk sentiment and central bank policy expectations. Renewed US-China trade tensions, highlighted by threats of additional tariffs and Europe’s scramble to secure semiconductor sovereignty, are dampening global risk appetite, which typically favors the US Dollar as a safe haven. However, the Greenback’s gains are tempered by speculation that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell could strike a dovish tone in his upcoming remarks, especially given the cooling US labor market and easing inflation pressures. On the Eurozone front, ECB’s François Villeroy emphasized downside risks to inflation, suggesting the central bank remains cautious about tightening policy prematurely. Germany’s ZEW Survey and finalized HICP data, due shortly, could further sway sentiment: stronger-than-expected figures may temporarily bolster the Euro by easing concerns about stagnation, while weak prints could amplify bearish EURUSD fundamental analysis narratives tied to Europe’s fragile economic momentum.
From a technical perspective, the EURUSD has shown resilience above the critical support zone near 1.1540-1.1550, rebounding from Monday’s slump to 1.1542. A bearish divergence double-top pattern observed near recent yearly highs signals potential longer-term corrective risks, but short-term buyers appear active. The pair’s ability to reclaim 1.1600 would validate bullish momentum, aligning with the proposed EURUSD trade signal (Entry: 1.16064, TP: 1.17110, SL: 1.15400). Upside targets near 1.1710 align with Fibonacci retracement levels from the September-October decline, while a break below 1.1540 could trigger accelerated selling toward 1.1500. Traders should monitor Powell’s speech for clues on Fed rate paths and any spillover from US-China trade developments, as these catalysts could override near-term technical patterns. Blending EURUSD technical analysis with the dovish ECB stance and USD sensitivity to risk flows creates a nuanced backdrop for positioning around key intraday levels.
Momentum Shift & Buy Signal in EURUSD
Historical analysis shows that this technical pattern — RSI extreme plus SMA100 breakout — has delivered strong momentum moves in EURUSD. These conditions are often favored by institutional traders for timing entries.
On the 60-minute chart, EURUSD has closed two consecutive candles above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA100) at 1.16064. This is widely used by professional traders to confirm trend continuation after reversal.
This setup is ideal for intraday and swing traders looking for high-probability entries. The confluence of RSI, SMA100 breakout, and ATR compression increases the reliability of this signal.
✅EURUSD Signal Setup – Entry, Stop & Take Profit Levels
- Selected Symbol: EURUSD
- Entry Direction: Up
- Entry Level:Buy @ 1.16064 or Better Price
- Targeting: 1.17110
- Protection Level: 1.15400
- Risk:0.5% of equity or adjust accordingly
- Trade Time: 2025.10.14 19:20
💡 Important EURUSD Signal Rules & Entry Filters
- Consider a stop-limit order if you expect sudden spikes during London or New York sessions.
- Ensure there’s no major economic data within the next 30 minutes post-entry.
- For optimal performance, wait for a candle close confirmation before entering.
- Ensure tight spreads and fast execution – ideal for short-term trades like EURUSD.
"Every stop-loss hit is protection, not punishment."
Note: Trading EURUSD involves uncertainty. These insights are for study purposes and not actionable financial recommendations.
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